The effective imposition of anti-dumping duty (ADD) on the current set of products being evaluated by the government to curb cheap imports priced below prevailing market rates could result in estimated annual foreign exchange (forex) savings of Rs 28,540 crore (US$ 3 billion) and facilitate investments worth Rs 70,000 crore, according to a study conducted by C-DEP Research and the Centre for WTO Studies under the Ministry of Commerce. The study noted that domestic producers often alert the government about low-priced imports that eventually cause injury to local industries.
Released today, the study titled Impact of Anti-Dumping Duties in India examines the effects of ADD on downstream costs, inflation, MSMEs, domestic capacity, and investments. The report was released by Pritam Banerjee and presented at a roundtable attended by leaders from India’s core domestic industries. The event brought together industry representatives from sectors including chemicals, polymers, textiles, and manufacturing, many of which have seen their domestic production capacities significantly impacted by dumping from China and other countries. These domestic manufacturers collectively represent a turnover exceeding Rs 2 trillion.
The study of 33 products revealed that the economic loss arising from dumped imports currently stands at approximately Rs 1.54 trillion and is projected to rise to between Rs 2.68 trillion and Rs 2.70 trillion by 2030. The number of jobs at risk is also expected to increase from around 24,000 currently to between 38,000 and 42,000 over the same period. The findings highlight the long-term impact of import-driven market distortions on India’s economy, industrial competitiveness, and employment generation.
Legal sanctity of ADDAnti-dumping duties are WTO-compliant trade remedy instruments levied globally by governments to safeguard domestic manufacturers from predatory pricing by foreign exporters, who dump imported products at prices lower than those prevailing in their home markets. The report also found that anti-dumping duties have a negligible impact on downstream costs and an immeasurably low effect on inflation.
An analysis of 56 cases recommended by the Directorate General of Trade Remedies (DGTR), where duties were not implemented, indicated that the median impact on final consumer prices would have been just 0.023 percent, with more than 91 percent of the cases recording an impact of less than 0.10 percent. The inflationary contribution of 21 pending anti-dumping duty products remains below 0.01 percentage points, even under a conservative 50 percent pass-through assumption. The findings demonstrate that anti-dumping duties do not materially increase prices for end consumers while helping restore fair competition for domestic producers.
Proportionate impactThe report highlights the disproportionate impact of the non-implementation of anti-dumping duties on MSMEs. Sustained dumped imports have forced shutdowns in sectors such as sublimation-transfer paper, phone back covers, and nylon filament yarn. The non-implementation of anti-dumping duties is having a catastrophic impact on domestic industries, including MSMEs, leading to increased import dependence and destruction of domestic manufacturing capacity. In contrast, timely anti-dumping duty interventions in sectors such as cable ties, ceramic ware, and vacuum flasks have enabled domestic MSMEs to sustain operations, expand production, and attract fresh investments.
MSMEs operate across the supply chain both as manufacturers competing against dumped imports and as users of industrial inputs. When avoidable import dependence weakens the rupee, the domestic currency cost of essential inputs rises, creating an asymmetric impact. While short-term access to cheap imports may benefit a narrow segment, prolonged import displacement can decimate domestic supply chains, reduce local competition, and expose MSMEs to higher exchange-rate pass-through effects.
The sublimation-transfer paper sector illustrates this trend clearly, as sustained dumping forced more than 20 domestic MSME manufacturers to shut down. Conversely, stakeholder consultations showed that timely anti-dumping duty intervention has helped MSMEs in sectors such as cable ties, ceramic ware, fishnets, vacuum flasks, and plastic processing machines sustain operations, attract new producers, and build domestic manufacturing capacity. The findings suggest that trade remedies can serve as an important instrument for preserving MSME-led manufacturing ecosystems.
Data analysed in the report also showed that India is not misusing anti-dumping duties. On the contrary, the United States and several other countries use anti-dumping duties on a much larger scale than India. The average duration of anti-dumping duties in India is 6.97 years, compared with the global average of 11.19 years. Duty rates in India also remain relatively lower than those imposed by countries such as the United States and China, where duties as high as 632 percent have been levied. These practices remain consistent with international norms, as India’s anti-dumping duty recommendations have consistently withstood challenges in WTO disputes.
Need for immediate implementationThe report highlights the need for the immediate implementation of anti-dumping duties recommended by the Directorate General of Trade Remedies (DGTR) in order to safeguard domestic manufacturing capacities while reducing the outflow of precious foreign exchange. Allowing dumped imports in sectors where India already possesses sufficient domestic capacity is considered detrimental to both the Indian economy and the rupee.
The timely imposition of anti-dumping duties would also help ensure adequate investments in domestic manufacturing capacity, prevent a widening demand-supply gap by 2030, reduce India’s dependence on imported goods, strengthen industrial resilience, and contribute toward fulfilling the Prime Minister’s vision of Viksit Bharat by 2047.
Average implementation periodWTO data show that India's average anti-dumping duty (ADD) duration across the reviewed cases is 6.97 years, compared with the global average of 11.19 years. The United States and Japan maintain longer duty durations and undertake more frequent sunset review renewals. The quantum of duties also differs significantly. Between 2024 and 2025, the United States imposed anti-dumping duties of 513–632 percent on melamine imports from India, while China imposed a 166 percent duty on cypermethrin.
In contrast, India’s average ADD rates typically range between 5 percent and 12 percent, reflecting a measured and restrained trade-remedy approach by international standards. During the review period, the United States frequently imposed triple-digit ADD rates, while China also levied several high duties exceeding 100 percent. Meanwhile, India’s ADD rates largely remained in the single-digit to low double-digit range. This supports the conclusion that India’s use of anti-dumping duties is calibrated and restrained compared with other major economies.
DILIP KUMAR JHA
Editor
dilip.jha@polymerupdate.com
